February 18, 2024
America is rolling the dice big time right now. Most of her citizens are clueless about the ramifications of abandoning Ukraine to her fate. We kept out WWI until we couldn't. We kept out of WWII until we couldn't. Both of those foot dragging experiences had real world consequences. Arguably, at least as it relates to WWII, our early involvement might have kept Hitler out of Poland and Japan out of Manchuria. Maybe.
Big wars don't start right away. Some historians argue that what we call WWI was actually the second act of the 1870-71 war that saw France sign a treaty paying huge war reparations to Germany. They did after all fire the first shots. Soon, after the war, proxy wars were fought over African possessions and things got real again in 1908 when the Austrian-Hungarian Empire annexed Bosnia- Herzegovina.
It is further argued that WWII, at minimum, is the second act of WWI, or more correctly, the third act of the War of 1870 when France declared war on Germany and got her ass handed to her posthaste.
WWII does not begin with Poland or with Pearl Harbor. It begins in Asia when the Japanese invade Manchuria in 1931. It begins in Europe when the French occupied the Ruhr Valley in 1923. Some will take issue with this, but the Germans will not quibble about this assessment. Germany got it back a couple of years later due to international pressure on France, but the table was set. Germany made the next move in 1936 by occupying the Rhineland, a territory designated as a demilitarized zone by the Treaty of Versailles.
Now, reading about the blow-by-blow of any war, after the fact, is kind of like watching paint dry for most people. A most important thing to understand is that it takes a long time for a big war to start. It takes time to arm up to fight a big war. During the prep time every player is making small moves to position their state to win. For Russia, that's Ukraine. For China, that's Taiwan.
Let's assume that we decide to let Russia and China have their way with their neighbors. Is that any skin off our back? Just for the sake of argument, let's say the odds are 50/50 that nothing worse happens. Another couple of decades go by without us being harassed. No big deal. Right? Forget about those Europeans. Who needs ‘em? Taiwanese are Chinese anyway. Right? No harm: no foul. Would you buy property if you knew that there was a 50% chance it would flood every year. No, I don't think so.
What are the odds that we are in the prelude to a large war? Should we just roll the dice? Or should we protect our interests now before the tide turns and threatens to flood us out? A Former Prime minister of Great Britain, Lord Palmerston, said in 1848,"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."
Will we do the right thing after we have exhausted all other possibilities? Or will we have to go all in before we are forced to roll again? It's high stakes craps.
